World 100m Record broken

New 100m World Record: Usain Bolt

9.72 seconds

The world has a new "fastest man" - the king is dead (for now), long live the new king, Usain Bolt of Jamaica.

Bolt last night beat the defending world champion Tyson Gay, and the absent world record holder Asafa Powell to blitz his way to a new world record over 100m. Powell's time of 9.74 seconds erased from the books in a time of 9.72 seconds.

This performance comes hot on the heels of his 9.76 s time about 2 weeks ago, which served notice that the world of sprinting now had a THIRD big name to look out for. This year's Beijing Olympic Games 100m race was building up as a showdown between Tyson Gay, the top man of 2007, and Asafa Powell, the seemingly eternally injured Jamaican who held the old world record. Enter a third contender in the 21-year old from Jamaica.

His emergence makes that 100m race even more spectacular, with the prospect of three men scorching times faster than 9.80 s in the same race (assuming they all get it right on the day).

As for Tyson Gay, he ran 9.85 s to finish in second place, which is not a disaster for him - it's early in his season, and let's face it, the Olympic Final is 11 weeks away, and a lot can (and most likely will) change in those 11 weeks. So expect Gay to feature just as strongly - I'd still make him the favourite, if for no other reason than that Bolt is a young man, with a long season ahead of him - the inevitable bumps in the road will be crucial in determining the kind of condition he takes to Beijing. I'll be very surprised if he is still in this kind of form by mid-August.

But for now, celebrations for Jamaica (who could put together a fearsome relay team, the 4 x 100m race will also be a great one), and for a change, 100m sprinting ON the track can dominate the headlines.

Oscar Pistorius - science to be revisted here

On another note, yesterday saw Oscar Pistorius' first race since the CAS ruling two weeks ago that cleared the way for him to qualify for the Beijing Olympic Games on the grounds that the current evidence was insufficient to ban him from competing with a performance advantage.

He ran in a 200m race in Holland, in a Paralympic qualifying event, and finished in 22.04 s. Not bad, considering that in his own words, he's done "hardly any training for the last three or four months" - his best is only 0.5 seconds faster. The temptation is there to say it must be "natural" talent, but it's the science that I'm most interested in.

And while it's taken 2 weeks, the evidence that he and his lawyers and scientists took to the CAS is finally starting to emerge (though it has still not been published). This week, I have heard a number of reports and read interviews with Prof Hugh Herr, who performed much of that research. Herr was quoted in a few articles, including one interview where he directly addressed the perceived flaws in the IAAF testing and explained the testing process that he believes "clears" Pistorius. That interview provides the best insight into the CAS thinking and that of Pistorius' lawyers and scientists so far, and so it's well worth looking at in detail. We'll look at that interview in a series of posts starting in the week.

As was suggested two weeks ago, it will be relatively easy to counter-challenge Pistorius' research on scientific grounds, finding flaws that are, in some cases, even more significant than those he found with the IAAF testing. I don't say that with any intention of sounding condescending, but must make the point that the very nature of science is that no study is ever perfect, and all can be questioned, either for the methods used or interpretations drawn. So just as Pistorius and his scientists had their day with the IAAF research, so too, science will have its day with his. The flaw in the whole appeal process, of course, is that the decision has been made without Pistorius' science ever being exposed to that peer-review process. As a result, there was little opportunity for a counter-challenge to the science done in Houston, despite the fact that it is far from an open-and-shut case of scientific proof.

So, in the coming weeks, I'll take a look at each of the key research areas that the IAAF first looked at, and then how Pistorius managed to challenge their findings, according to Herr's interview. I really do hope that at some stage, the science is published, and then the science can be taken to a whole new level of scrutiny. But until then, the interview offers a great deal of insight and is well worth discussing. At the very least, it should stimulate some discussion, though my belief is that it exposes some of the errant thinking that was presented to the CAS without any chance of defence by the IAAF (though they are to blame for that particular problem, for the science presented by Pistorius is not difficult to counter-challenge).

The first one we'll look at is the whole energy-use question - does Pistorius use less energy than able-bodied runners? Recall that the IAAF measured oxygen use during a 400m race and concluded that he used less energy. Herr and the other Pistorius scientists challenged that on some technical/semantic grounds. The irony is that in so doing, they actually expose perhaps the most convincing evidence of a physiological advantage to date. But that's an appetizer for later...Join us for that next week.

In the meantime, someof the better reports I've read on the CAS verdict can be found here and here. The second article is particularly interesting - it's written by a direct of a centre for Bioethics who actually looks past the question of advantages and argues it from an ethical perspective. An interesting read.

Ross

Can a Kenyan win the 2008 Olympic Marathon?

World leaders named to team, but can they reach the podium in Beijing?

The big-city Spring marathons are long gone, and in fact we are moving into Athletics season now with the Hengelo meeting already behind us. But in their wake the spring marathons left a pile of dominant Kenyans. Namely, Martin Lel, Sammy Wanjiru, and Robert Cheruiyot. Those three runners were named officially to the Kenyan marathaon team, but in fact between Paris, London, and Rotterdam, fully six Kenyans broke 2:07, and Cheruiyot, with a 2:07:46 in Boston may well have broke 2:07 on any other course. We have gone on about Martin Lel as perhaps the best marathoner ever, and we were most impressed with how Cheruiyot decimated the field from the front and ran away with the win in Boston, but even with this impressive trio lining up in Beijing can Kenya bring home the gold?

A dearth of Kenyan marathon medals

Although we associate Kenyans with middle-distance and marathon dominance---Kenyan men have won 16 of the last 20 Boston races---to date no Kenyan has won marathon gold, and in fact they medaled only thrice, with two of those medals from the same runner:

• Douglas Wakihurui, 1988 Silver medalist
• Eric Wainaina, 1996 Bronze medalist
• Eric Wainaina, 2000 Silver medalist
  

So in spite of utter dominance on the road circuit, and in the middle-distance events on the track (especially the steeple chase), the Kenyan men are without marathon gold. Admittedly, only 13 different countries have taken Olympic gold since 1896 (25 races), and only two men have won twice. So it is not an event that one country appears to be able to dominate across the years. But this seems strange given how dominant the Kenyans have been at the shorter distances, too, as the faster runners over 5000 m and 10000 m distances tend to be the faster runners in the marathon. So one would think that the runners would filter through from the shorter events and continue to dominate over the marathon distance.

But the really interesting thing is that when you examine the dominant middle-distance Kenyan athletes from the 1980's and 1990's, we see that very few, if any of them, "graduated" to the marathon. It seems the only Kenyan track star to move on to the marathon is Paul Tergat. However, in previous years it also does not seem as though the Kenyan men have shown such incredible depth and form in the marathon going into the games. Have Kenyan men won big races like Boston and London in Olympic years? Boston, yes, but London, no:

• 1988 - Henrik Jorgensen, DEN
• 1992 - Antonio Pinto, POR
• 1996 - Dionicio Ceron, ITA
• 2000 - Antonio Pinto, POR
• 2004 - Evans Rutto, KEN

And Rutto was not selected for the 2004 Olympic Marathon team, with Tergat and the veteran Eric Wainaina the only two Kenyans lining up for that race, which is interesting in itself that Kenya had only two runners in that race when all countries were allowed a maximum of three. It is unclear why the medalists in the 800 - 10000 m never moved up to the marathon. Perhaps there was no incentive to carry on training so hard as those athletes had achieved financial and other success already, and most likely secured their retirement at an early age.

But perhaps this is the year of the Kenyan Olympic Marathon champion? We are not betting men, but if we were, the smart money is on "no." The history of the Olympic Marathon race tells us that it is too unpredictable. In fact going into the Athens race in 2004, Paul Tergat was hands down the fastest man on the line, posting his then WR of 2:04:55, which was nearly 90 s faster than South Africa's Gert Thys. Yet both of these runners were well off the pace and finished far out of contention.

This unpredictability is likely the result of a number of factors, perhaps most importantly that nations can field a maximum of only three runners in the race. This makes the odds a bit more even for any country to win gold. Next is the nature of the Olympic marathon courses. Seldom are they flat and straight, and instead tend to wind thru the host cities with no regard for hills and climbs. This changes the racing tactics away from a fast "time-trial" like event and more into a "wait and see" race of attrition. Finally, the environmental conditions tend to be hot and humid---it is the Summer Olympics, after all---which as we mentioned here previously does not suit the Kenyans due to their choice to remain at altitude, where it is temperate and dry, during their Olympic preparations.

But there is hope. . .!

Young Sammy Wanjiru, he of blistering half-marathon speed and a 2:06:01 average for his first two marathons, is based in Japan and trains with a Japanese coach. Should he win Olympic gold, he will be the youngest Olympic marathon champion as he will be only 21 when he races in Beijing this summer. Lel is the King for now, but Wanjiru gets the nod from us as the best hope for a Kenyan marathon medal due to his training base in Asia.

And with only about 70 days remaining until the opening ceremonies, the marathoners (and other athletes, too) will be entering into a crucial phase of their training. It takes some time to make training adaptations, and so they will be aiming for two periods of very hard training now from which they will benefit only in August.

In the meantime we will watch with much interest how everyone performs in the IAAF meets in June and July as this will provide some insight into their current form. Watch for the perennial favorites who are not producing top times, as running so fast now would indicate peaking too early, and it is difficult to maintain such great form for over two months. Instead we should see them near the top, maybe winning, but with times off their best performances. In any case it will be a most interesting lead up to Beijing, and be sure to join us here for all the analysis along the way!

Athlete spotlight: Borzakovskiy and Radcliffe

Build-up to Beijing: Focus on Beijing preparations of Yuriy Borzakovskiy and Paula Radcliffe

A brief break from the fatigue series today, where we'll split the section on exercise in the heat up with some interesting articles we came across thanks to LetsRun.com (great site for running related news).

Yuriy Borzakovskiy - Olympic champion planning his defence

The first is an interview with Yuriy Borzakovskiy of Russia. He is the current Olympic 800m champion, and the 800m event, for those with an interest in the track and field races at this year's Games, is probably the most open event in the whole thing. There are probably ten men who, on their day, could win Gold. Last year, at the World Championships, for example, the top three were:

1. Alfred Kirwa Yego
2. Gary Reed
3. Yuriy Borzakovskiy

Only Borzakovskiy would have gone into the race a heavy favourite, though Yego and Reed are now realistic medal contenders in Beijing thanks to this result. But then so are about ten other men, including two young sensations: Abubaker Kaki Kamis of Sudan and David Rudisha of Kenya.

Kaki Kamis won the world indoor title earlier this year (in mighty imprssive fashion), while Rudisha, a young Kenyan, won in Doha on the weekend, running 1:44:36. And did we mention Saad Kamel, Bungei, Mulaudzi, Said-Guerni? The 800m event is so wide open that pre-World Championship favourites failed to even qualify for the finals! There are numerous reasons for this - the tactical nuances of the event, the unique physiological demands and difficulty of racing through two qualifying rounds, which many athletes are unaccustomed to, and don't seem to handle particularly well?

And then there is the psychology - in the article with Borzakovskiy, he alludes to the open nature of the event, insisting that there are no favourites for the Beijing title. But he does drop a few interesting hints at what it takes to win the title, including mention that Wilson Kipketer failed to win Gold in Athens because he was not "psychologically ready".

He also talks about how he is "in good psychological condition", and that he doesn't feel the need for any structured psychological intervention. Unfortunately, he doesn't elaborate on what that means, and he doesn't explain what he believes is the psychological "edge" that saw him win that gold medal, which would have been great insight.

Nevertheless, it's a great read, and really fascinating to see how he travels so extensively during the training phase. I count four different training camps in different locations, in addition to his home base, which is interesting, given that many of his rivals, particularly in Kenya, will find one single base during their build-ups.

The link again: Borzakovskiy article

Paula Radcliffe - Fear of failure and Beijing plans

The second and third articles concern Paula Radcliffe. Radcliffe is, obviously, one of the big names of the Olympics, perhaps more for her failures in Athens than her other magnificent achievements. The articles deal with the Athens Marathon and her now infamous DNF, which has been unfairly emphasized. She speaks in these articles about the burden of expectation and her fear of the same happening in Beijing.

I really do hope she can put this right in Beijing and win the title, though the challenges are numerous - apart from her rivals, there is the heat. Radcliffe is a bigger runner than many of the Japanese, Chinese and Kenyans she'll be racing against, and there is scientific evidence that size matters in the heat - bigger runners tend to fare worse in hot conditions (as we'll see in the next post on Fatigue and Exercise in the Heat).

The article alludes to the fact that Radcliffe is training in a humidity and heat chamber, which is of course vitally important in the build-up. Her injury is the other factor - a toe injury, which forced her out of the London Marathon. She seems to me to be the type of runner who needs and enjoys racing herself into better shape, and so that loss of a race may be substantial. She mentions in the articles that it's not a major concern for her.

Good reads, both articles, which you can find here:

Radlcliffe article 1
Radcliffe article 2

Looking ahead - picking up fatigue

Looking forward now, the next post on fatigue is on the way (as soon as time allows it!), and it will look again at exercise in the heat. This time, however, we'll concentrate on the regulation of performance (as opposed to the heat limitation of exercise, as we did yesterday) in the heat, with special focus on Beijing.

Join us then!

Ross

Spring Marathon season

Wrapping up the spring marathon season - a Kenyan season, but will the Olympic Games be the same?

Yesterday's Boston Marathon brought the curtain down on the 2008 Spring Marathon season, and all eyes now turn towards the August Beijing Olympic Marathon. That will be followed by the Autumn racing season, consisting of Berlin, Chicago and New York, where hopefully, we'll see more world-class racing performances.

Because of the proximity of the Olympic Games, the Autumn races in October are more likely to feature the "could have beens", an opportunity for the fourth, fifth and sixth best runners to show what their federations might have missed, particularly in the case of Kenya. The Berlin race will almost certainly also feature Haile Gebrselassie, who looks set, I believe, to attempt the world record there, unless he changes his mind about Beijing Marathon participation.

A Kenyan Spring: The world's roads belong to Kenyan men

However, looking back over the last month's races, without a shadow of a doubt, the month of April, and the world's roads, have belonged to Kenya. Of the four marathons we covered (Paris, London, Rotterdam and Boston), Kenyan men claimed three titles, missing out only on the Paris race, which was won by Tsegaye Kebedi in impressive fashion. You can read our analysis of the World Marathon Major races by clicking on the "Marathon analysis" tab on the top of our page (you'd have to visit the site, in case you're getting this as an email).

But it was the manner of the Kenyan dominance that stood out. On Sunday 13 April, THREE Kenyan men broke 2:06, two in London, one in Rotterdam. They also placed fourth in London, took out seven of the top 10 places in Rotterdam, and then Robert Cheruiyot won Boston with a dominant, front running performance yesterday. Martin Lel, Sammy Wanjiru and Robert Cheruiyot are a ferocius trio, and surely, will be selected for Beijing. The heat may pose a problem (discussed below), but on form, they are very, very difficult to beat, given what we've seen over the last ten days.

So all is good in the world of Kenyan marathon running. This comes three weeks after their officials were ready to hit the panic button after a very disappointing showing at the World Cross Country Championships, where they failed to win a single title, being completely overshadowed by the Ethiopians. However, that is another story, one which I'll look at in the coming weeks, with an eye on the track events in Beijing. For now, however, world marathon running is very much a Kenyan affair.

Will the Olympics deliver the same results for Kenya? The potential of a "meltdown" in the Beijing heat

So quite rightly, Kenyan officials and fans will be expecting gold come Beijing. On paper, and on form, they have three out of the top four marathon runners in the world, men who have shown the ability to get the training and performance right on the day, along with ability to produce astonishing finishing kicks (Martin Lel - 60 second final 400m ability) and aggressive front-running displays (Robert Cheruiyot, solo running over Boston's hills). So, no apparent weakness then?

Well, not quite. There is the small matter of the heat and humidity in Beijing. And the reason this is all relevant is because no one really knows how these athletes will be affected.

A false perception that heat favours Africans?

There is a perception, certainly among the non-African media, that a hot race favours the Africans. And ordinarily, this would be so - they do train in Equatorial climates, after all, where summer temperatures are regularly in the 30's, with high humidity! However, it becomes very interesting to consider what happens in Kenya during the month of July, which is when the major training phase will take place in Kenya.

There is an important assumption to be made first, however. This assumption is based on my own personal interaction with scientists and coaches who have worked with the top Kenyan athletes, so I believe that it is reliable, though admittedly second-hand:

That is, most of the Kenyan athletes will not be leaving their normal training base to do any heat adaptation training in the lead up to Beijing. The reason, according to scientists at the Kenyatta University in Nairobi who we in Cape Town have done some work with, is that the athletes prefer the familiar environments and the single-minded focus these bases provide them with. So rather than adopt the approach of a Paula Radcliffe, and the US Olympic team, who are planning training camps in the hotter European climates, many of Kenya's best will remain in their high-altitude camps right until the Games.

This has major implications for their ability to adapt to the heat. Because contrary to popular belief, Kenya is nowhere near hot enough to acclimatize during the winter months of June and July! Cold is of course a relative term, but if you take a look at the historic weather data for Kenya in July, you'll see that in Eldoret (perhaps the most famous training base), the average peak temperature is ONLY 20 degrees celsius (69F), and the typical morning temperature is 10 to 11 degrees Celsius (52 F). Remember that Eldoret is at altitude (2,100m), and so it's neither hot nor humid there in the winter months.

This means, of course, that a Kenyan training in Eldoret during June and July has zero exposure to temperatures likely to be encountered in Beijing. For the record, the average daily temperature in Beijing in August is expected to range between 20 and 30 degrees, with a humidity in excess of 70%. Those are seriously challenging conditions, and if an athlete heads into that situation unprepared from a heat-physiology perspective, the effects will be severe.

The Ethiopian approach to Osaka, and Kenya's options

What is interesting to consider is the difference in approach taken by Ethiopian athletes in the build-up to the IAAF World Athletics Championships in Osaka last year. Osaka, incidentally, is very similar to Beijing - hot and humid. I know that the Ethiopians, who are the same as the Kenyans in that they choose to stay in the country to prepare for the major races, actually brought in expertise that included providing access to a heat chamber before they went to Osaka.

So, given that Osaka was going to be hot and humid, the Ethiopians made use of a chamber which effectively brought the heat to them. They did training sessions which simulated Osaka conditions, and it's likely they'll be using the same in preparation for Beijing. This was a highly efficient technique since as little as 60-90 min per day in the heat chamber will stimulate the physiological adaptations that will enhance thermoregulatory function in the heat. These runners are likely already running twice a day, so once in the chamber should not have impacted their high-quality efforts.

Whether the Kenyans will adopt a similar approach remains to be seen. From a physiological point of view, it is absolutely crucial that any athlete who wants to be competitive in Beijing be adapted to the heat.

It doesn't matter how good you are, how dominant a marathon runner, if you are unfamiliar with the expected heat in Beijing, physiological function will be compromised when you are first exposed to the heat, and it takes a minimum of five days of exposure to start to see any adaptations.

The scientific evidence on this is very clear - it takes between 5 and 8 exposures to hot and humid conditions before the body has made most of the adaptations and is able to keep its temperature down. The problem for the Kenyan runners, then, is that unless they figure out a way to expose their physiology to the Beijing heat and humidity, they will be entering the race "cold". This has happened before, and there's a chance it will happen again.

If it does, then don't be surprised if a relatively unknown athlete comes in and wins a surprise Gold medal. It is for the reasons explained above that I believe that Sammy Wanjiru, thanks to his familiarity with the Far East, and possibly the fact that he'll be based in the East during his build-up, is the bigger favourite, despite the fact that I believe that Martin Lel is the world's greatest marathoner today. Lel, all things being equal, wins any marathon he runs in. Unfortunately, things are rarely equal, and the heat is the great leveler. Kenya, for all its dominance over the roads of London, Boston and Rotterdam, may yet find itself neutralized by a failure to prepare for the heat in Beijing.

As the Olympics draws nearer, this issue of heat will become much more relevant. We will certainly bring you all the insights and explanations, including a full series on heat physiology and acclimatization, and also hopefully some inside information on what the Kenyans and Ethiopians are doing!

Ross

Swimming update

The swimsuit that is causing major controversy - Speedo winning hands down

I could scarcely believe my eyes last night, when I tuned into the World Short-course swimming championships in Manchester. This was the first opportunity I have had to see, first-hand, the results of the swimsuit wars we've been covering here in the last few weeks.

"Irrelevant world records" - the proof is in the pools

What I saw was the fulfilment of a prophecy made by the coach of the US swimming team, Mark Schubert, which we reported in our very first post on the issue some three weeks ago. He said then that the new swimsuits would one day make world records "irrelevant", and sure enough, "one day" has arrived, as records are being broken by more than two body lengths!

There are some coaches who are in denial, they say this is normal for an Olympic year. And as a physiologist, I will concede that the focus on the Olympics, the training peaks designed around it, is guaranteed to drive swimming records lower.

But last night, as I watched the Dutch Women's 4 x 200m relay team OBLITERATE a world record that had stood for six years by EIGHT SECONDS, I found it difficult to believe that coaches still feel this. That's right - EIGHT SECONDS. In fact, had it not been for a "relatively slow" final leg by the young Dutch swimmer, the record would have been destroyed by more than ten seconds.

At the time when the third swimmer touched the wall and ended 600m, the Dutch team was 8.5 seconds ahead of the record pace, set by China six years ago.

Now, I'm prepared to acknowledge that short-course records may be "softer" because they're swum a little less frequently at the national level, and that this record, in the 4 x 200m event is one that might have been up for revision. But seriously, when four teams are able to beat the old world record (which had, incidentally, survived the Athens 2004 build-up, which sort of negates the argument of some coaches), then you have to wonder about the suit and just how different it is.

A conflict for swimmers - medals or sponsors?

And on that note, Speedo's LZR has done more than just damage old world records - it's also dominated the swimsuit war that has been raging between Speedo, Arena, TYR and Adidas, and created a real dilemma for swimmers who are not in the LZR Racer.

Now admittedly, it's too early to make a call, but reports earlier this week that Arena's CEO was pushing to have the LZR Racer banned on the grounds that it was illegal were suggestive that other companies are very concerned. For the record, FINA are saying that the LZR Racer is perfectly legal, and that Speedo met every criteria they laid down in the manufacturing and development phase. FINA will still be meeting the manufacturers on Saturday to discuss matters further, so nothing is official yet, but they are in a very tightly painted corner, it seems.

Not only are the manufacturers concerned, but newer reports suggest that coaches of swimmers who are NOT wearing the Speedo LZR are also worried. This article reports the US head coach Schubert suggesting that swimmers would be faced with a "black and white" decision over which swimsuit to wear, or face losing Olympic medals as a result.

The conflict that arises with sponsors then becomes a major factor. The same article goes on to say that certain manufacturers (Arena and Adidas, in this case), are saying to their swimmers that they can, if desired, swim in the Speedo suit, and face no consequences. However, it also reports that some swimmers have been threatened with loss of sponsorship support if they go this way.

This suggests two things:

First, swimmers are looking likely to be faced with a choice between medals and sponsorship support. That clearly cannot be healthy for the sport - eight finalists per event in Beijing, and one would hope the best swimmer wins. To lose any medal by 1/100th of a second because a suit might be inferior is a shame for the athlete.

Second, the fact that Arena and Adidas are going public with the statement that they don't mind a switch in swimsuit is another example of just how Speedo has gained the upper hand. They have 18 of 19 world records (before last night in Manchester) and already, it seems that the suit has an aura of invincibility around it!

This might, of course, be premature, because the confounder in all this is that so far, not many swimmers have had the chance to race in the Arena, Adidas and TYR suits (to name a few). Speedo got into the "market" well before they did, and so the competition hasn't exactly been "field-tested" yet. Time may reveal that they are even better...? That makes the apparent concession of defeat by these companies all the more surprising.

Whether or not the differences it makes are genuinely that large, one thing that is for sure, is that if I was a Speedo LZR swimmer, I'd have a whole lot more confidence knowing I was wearing what is rapidly becoming the "Ferrari of swimsuits"!

Last word to Ryan Lochte, one of the stars of the USA swimming team, a man who is expected to pick up a share of golds in Beijing. He is one of the lucky ones...

"It basically helps you float and makes you feel like you are swimming downhill."

Ross

Build-up to Beijing: Controversy reigns

Beijing's torch relay - a sign of the future? And the swimsuit wars hot up

The swimsuit wars hot up - rumours that Arena will seek to have Speedo's LZR banned

Olympic controversy is the name of the game today, unfortunately. Starting with the less sedate of those stories, below is a very short article I was sent yesterday evening concerning the latest news around the ongoing swimsuit debate. This debate, which we have tried to cover for you in the last few weeks, revolves around the legality of the new swimsuit by Speedo. According to the article below, Arena (a rival manufacturer), is moving to have the Speedo LZR Racer banned, on the grounds that Arena's suit is not as fast! Here is the article (in green):

Andrew Webster
April 7, 2008

THE BIG WRAP

DON'T be surprised if the controversial swimsuit responsible for helping our swimmers go faster than the Manly JetCat is banned this week. We have been told that swimwear manufacturer Arena is putting plenty of pressure on swimming's governing body, FINA, to stamp out the suits because of a belief its Powerskin suit cannot produce faster times than the Speedo LZR Racer and adidas's soon-to-be-released suit. At the recent national titles, where eight world records were obliterated, only Craig Stevens wore an Arena suit. And don't be surprised if Arena gets its way: the company is one of FINA's major sponsors. Swimming officials will meet at the world shortcourse championships in Manchester this week to discuss whether the suits will be allowed at the Beijing Olympics.

Honestly, had this article been sent to me a week ago, I would have passed it off as an April Fool's joke, so ludicrous is the idea that one manufacturer would cite this as the reason. There are plenty of reasons to look at banning the suit, but this surely cannot be one of them! Imagine if in Formula 1, the Renault team tried to have Ferrari's new engines banned because theirs was not "powerful enough"!

The point is, Arena themselves recently launched their own suit, the Powerskin R-Evolution, and it would seem that the "battle lines" had clearly been drawn. Speedo went to NASA to test fabrics, and New Zealand to test the suit. Arena, for their part, hired the same scientist who had worked on the America's Cup boat Alinghi. There are clearly no "rules" in this particular war - do what it takes to improve the costume, so to now reportedly seek a ban because you lost the battle smacks of anything but competition.

We'll see where it goes - this may well be a rumour that has caught on and spread - it was in an Australian paper, and Australia are sponsored by ---- you guessed it, Speedo. So if anyone is threatened by impending bans, it's them. So it may be a false report, born of paranoia. But what is interesting to me to see is how this issue seems to be polarizing the swimming community. We wrote in one of our posts on this topic that the technology in swimsuits threatened to create a situation with the "haves" and the "have-nots". Whether or not this story is true, it certainly suggests that this may happen! At the very least, we have a situation of "us" vs. "them", and all over swimsuits! It will be fascinating to see how FINA rule at the upcoming meetings at the World Champs in Manchester.

We'll keep you posted!

The Flame of Discord - public relations disasters start now...

Moving onto a slightly more serious, but out of scope topic (for us, anyway), the Olympic torch, a symbol of peace and unity, had no sooner begun its journey around the world than it found itself the centre of global controversy. We wrote a few weeks ago that it was bound to be a relay stalked at every turn by ugly scenes, thanks to protests against China's human rights record. Well, two stops, and two public relations nightmares for the Chinese Olympic Organizing committee, the host cities, the IOC - in fact, anyone who is even remotely linked to China's spectacle in August must be dreading the next 80,000 miles.

It was London yesterday, and Paris today, that provided 48 km and 28km of exposure for the protesters and the Olympic torch that can only be described as the "Flame of Discord", according to the French press. Much like an open flame attracts insects at night (particularly in SA where we often have no power - as I write this, for example), so too this flame is destined to attract protesters wherever it goes. Today in Paris, for the first time in many years (perhaps ever - anyone know this?), the flame was extinguished, put out by protesters. It had to be relit using the backup flames that accompany it all the way through its journey.

This is obviously not our key focus here at The Science of Sport, so political insights and comments are left to the experts and the news sites of the world. But the Olympic Games most certainly are a key focus, and if the rest of the Olympics are going to be as fraught with problems as the Olympic Torch relay, then it will indeed be a shame for the athletes who work for four years to be the deserving centre of attention.

Spare a thought, for example, for all the athletes and dignitaries who yesterday and today had to carry the Olympic Flame in London and Paris - what might have been a glorius celebration and moment of achievement for them instead turned out to be a gauntlet of terror, with threats of violence stalking their run. Surrounded by three levels of security, including a very ominous "inner circle" of Chinese guards dressed in blue, their relay leg was anything but a celebration. If they were lucky, they got to finish their leg. If they were not so fortunate, they were ushered into a bus where the flame could at least be "protected" from the upcoming trouble...this is certainly no way to launch an Olympics under the pretense of bringing the world's nations together.

And I read this afternoon that the IOC Chief is "very concerned" about the issues, including the current situation in Tibet. Well, the reality is that these events, and the protests, were identified as risks long ago, yet people have not intervened. The current protests, which threaten the Olympic celebration, are likely the symptom of a deeper problem and should not bear sole responsibility for the current controversy - the cause has been ignored and unfortunately, the Olympics are the catalyst that bring the symptoms to the surface. The irony is that the current relay concept owes much to the German regime in 1936 who felt the torch would glorify the ruling party - this particular version, the 2008 relay, is doing anything but glorifying China.

But let's just hope that this issue does become a sidebar over time, a minor issue, and that maybe the Olympics can serve as a catalyst to resolve those political problems. And then, just maybe, we can actually get on with the business of the sports, the athletes and the performances, which is of course our main focus here.

Ross

The swimsuit debate

Technology in sport: The swimsuit debate continues, as Adidas enters the fray

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Be sure to visit our main page where we have daily analysis
and comment of the swimming and other events at Beijing 2008!

Those of you who have been following our swimming posts over the last few weeks will have read a series of articles looking at the Speedo LZR swimsuit and the controversy it has caused.

In the third post of that series, we mentioned that the other swimsuit makers would soon be unleashing their own high-tech designs onto the swimming world. That began with Arena and their Powerskin R-Evolution (right), which has the distinction (for the meantime) of being the only suit other than a Speedo in which a world record has been set this year (by Pelligrini of Italy!).

The Adidas "entry" - The Powerweb

The latest suit to hit the waters is the Adidas TechFit Powerweb suit, shown in the picture below right. The suit was first used in the ongoing British swimming trials in Sheffield.

What makes this suit "unique" are the Thermoplastic Urethane (TPU) "powerbands" which are placed at strategic positions on the suit. These bands, made of an elastic material that compress the muscle beneath them, are supposed to improve blood flow and explosive power. This will, according to Adidas, provide a "slingshot that helps to propel the swimmer from the blocks and off the wall at turns".

Note that Adidas are emphasizing quite a different strategy from that adopted by Speedo and Arena, which have reported how they have altered the hydrodynamics and movement through the water - body shape and drag, particularly. Adidas no doubt does the same (they'd be foolish not to, given the large effect this clearly has on performance), but they have emphasized the Powerbands as a distinctive feature, which I find interesting.

I don't know whether their claims can be verified, but if they are that effective, we might be able to see swimmers shooting off the walls of Beijing and gaining places over their not so fortunate Adidas-clad rivals! Or is it that simple? I stress again, my expertise lies in running and cycling, not swimming, and so I am certainly not the best person to answer my own question. However, I would love to see a study in Beijing of swimmers and just how much time is gained (or lost) in the turns, and at the start. This would of course not prove that the suit is to blame (or credit), since numerous other factors are involved in these technique-oriented variables, but it would make for interesting reading if swimmers in one suit all happened to demonstrate superior turn ability.

The other difference that Adidas brings to the pool is the world's first breaststroke specific suit. According to reports, breaststroke specialists were complaining that the generic suit had the Powerweb bands in the wrong places, restricting their stroke. And so a breaststroke suit was designed specially for that event. Again, it interests me to know just how large the advantage may be, if any exists at all? Do Adidas-wearing breaststrokers derive so much benefit that we might notice a difference? Are we talking tenths-of-a-second, or milliseconds?

The suit makers are all claiming "revolutionary" improvements in performance - they even named the suit R-evolution in the case of Arena - and so if true, then simple observation and description of performance may well throw up some interesting observations. I'm really hopeful that come Beijing, the manufacturers will have all developed their suits to the point where the margins between them are so tiny as to be insignificant. We might then see world records falling like tenpins, but in competitive races, which is the least that can be hoped for!

The debate continues - are they swimmers or muscle-powered yachts?

In any event, we've already had the debate over whether the technology is good or bad for the sport, and whether it should be legal. And as has been pointed out, one can only paint oneself into the proverbial corner by doing that! Because of course, equipment is as much part of the sport as training and so one can hardly return to the good old days of Alexander Popov (right), who amazingly didn't ever bother with either a swim cap or a full length suit (they weren't around yet) when he was in his prime! It was his 50 m freestyle record that was being swopped between Sullivan and Bernard this year, and I wonder if he'd still be smiling had he been wearing an LZR or a R-evolution?

On a more serious note, I read an interesting thing on this blog on the Arena research and development of their latest swimsuit...

It turns out that one of the lead researchers in the development of this suit is a scientist named Alfio Quarteroni. He was one of the scientists who was responsible for computer models and simulations on Alinghi, which is the Swiss yacht that won the America's cup in 2003 and 2007. As most will know, yachting is not dissimilar to Formula 1 racing when it comes to innovation and technology, and no stone is left unturned to design boats that have minimal drag in the water.

And so, the scientist's job with Arena was presumably to do very much the same thing - work out how to reduce drag and improve speed by altering shape and water flow over the "yacht/body". Now, we clearly are not going to resolve this issue, but it's worth discussing - at what point does swimming move over into the realm of yachting? At the risk of sound absurd, does the advance in technology narrow the gap between swimming and yachting, to the point where the swimmer is analogous to a human-powered (as opposed to wind-powered) yacht?

I'm not against technology, and as I've said before, I have no problem with these suits, provided the playing field (or water, in this case!) is level and all have equal access. I'm not 100% convinced this will happen, but nevertheless, I don't see the swimsuits as a bad thing. But it just struck me the other day that when swimmers look for milliseconds, they seem to search in the same place as engineers on America's Cup yachts. Is that sport? Of course, the cost of innovation is vastly different - $700 for a swimsuit hardly compares to millions for a yacht.

And then, they are still powered by physiology, of course, which is a big difference. And swimmers can (and should be) spending hours a day working on their starts, turns and body position in the water. Then there is propulsion from muscle contraction that can't be discounted, however low the drag is. And no suit is going to turn me, a regular splasher, into anything like an Olympic hopeful. But if it makes 5% difference, would that be revolutionary enough to move a semi-final hopeful onto the podium? Just some random thoughts...

Ross

Gebrselassie and Beijing Part 3

Gebrselassie hints at reversing his decision to withdraw from the Olympic Marathon

Just time for a very short post today (I promise I'll find time and tackle running shoes and barefoot running soon!), and thanks to Lorenzo for providing the following link, which hints that Haile Gebrselassie may actually go back on his decision to pull out of the Olympic Marathon!

BBC News article: Gebrselassie drops marathon hint

In the article, Gebrselassie is quoted as saying that he will consider running the Marathon, but only if:

1. The start time is changed, to take place in the cooler part of the day, and;
2. The course is moved away from the city centre, where pollution is in theory the worst

"I do not want to rule anything out at this point," were his words.

Now, I remember a previous occasion where Gebrselassie made similarly bizarre requests. The event was the IAAF World Championships in athletics, held in Seville, Spain, in 1999. Gebrselassie withdrew from the 10,000m event saying that the track surface was too hard to run long distance races on! There was talk at the time, if I remember correctly, that he actually asked the meeting organizers to pour water on the track just before the start, so that it could be softened!

They refused (I suspect they knew that it wouldn't work, along with everyone else), and so he said he would not run. Eventually, he was "persuaded" to run by a combination of pressure from the Ethiopian federation, and I seem to recall that his shoe sponsor Adidas designed extra-cushioned spikes for him to run in!

So perhaps this is all just the same thing, 11 years later. Or maybe it's Gebrselassie's rather unique sense of humour. Whatever the case, when I first read the announcement, I was quite sceptical that he'd actually go through and pull out. He may yet, but I wouldn't be that surprised if he changes his mind and lines up on the roads, even if it is inside the city centre!

More information on the conditions in Beijing

Just one more story I picked up on in the news in the last couple of days - apparently, in September last year (which is only a few weeks after the Olympics will end this year, so weather conditions are much more similar than for the Beijing Marathon in October), Beijing hosted a pre-Olympics Mountain Bike event, to serve as a trial run for the Games.

Well, 50 cyclists started the race, and a grand total of.......EIGHT athletes managed to finish, most dropping out, in part due to oppressive heat, in part due to difficulty breathing! It's apparently difficult to differentiate between the two - very hot and humid air is certainly difficult to breathe (if you've ever been in a steam bath, you'll relate). And we received a great comment with some personal experience from Jamie, which you can read below in the Comments section - he was in Beijing last August for a test event on the rowing course. His report? Heat and humidity were significant factors, but the pollution not so noticeable.

We've of course neglected to focus on the heat in the last few posts, courtesy of Gebrselassie's decision based on the pollution. But there's no question that the heat and humidity are going to be significant factors. If that's what Beijing has in store come August this year, then it's anyone's guess who'll win the endurance events. My money is still on an athlete who is based in the Far East - a Kenyan who lives and races there (think Wanjiru), or one of the locals, seems the best bet.

But, in closing I do just have to add that I don't believe there is a long term danger of exposure to that pollution on a very short term basis. Gebrselassie has been quoted as saying that he fears for his long term health, and more recently, that "our [the athletes] safety has to be protected". I certainly believe the pollution will compromise performance, but the worst case scenario, in my estimation, is that an athlete will be unable to breathe, maybe feel nauseous and pull out of the race quite early on. But he'll live to fight another day, and no long term, residual effects will slow him/her down for years to come. So as I said previously, a short term negative effect, absolutely. But I don't buy this theory of long term damage - the exposure is just too short.

Anyway, that's all on this issue, for now. I have a feeling that we'll be coming back to it again in the future.

Oh, and last thing, as much as I would love to claim that Haile Gebrselassie is changing his mind as a result of reading this site, I can't bring myself to do that!

Ross

The Beijing Olympics: Pollution and performance

The Beijing Marathon - Pollution and Performance

Yesterday bought the sensational news that Haile Gebrselassie had made the "99% sure" decision to withdraw from the Olympic Marathon in Beijing and rather enter the 10,000m event.

His reason? The pollution, combined with his asthma, the heat and the humidity in Beijing posed a risk to his health, and he did not wish to compromise his chances in the 2012 London Olympics, or his ambition to run a 2:03 Marathon in the future.

Gebrselassie is a great athlete, maybe the greatest ever, but this story has a bizarre sound to it. For one thing, to make a decision now based on a race he hopes to run in four years' time, when there's even less chance of being competitive (he'll be 39, at the end of a career that has lasted 19 years!) does not seem a very sound one.

Secondly, it's highly unlikely that running the marathon in Beijing would affect his health in the long term. What it might do (and we'll get to this later) is affect his performance in the short term! That is, he might not have a very good race, perhaps, and worst case scenario, he'd be forced to bail from the race with breathing difficulties. But to suggest that his marathon running future is at stake is a little extreme.

Third, the pollution in Beijing is something of an unknown quantity, in that no one can say with any certainty how it will affect performances. To make a decision like this, fully 5 months out from the Olympics, seems to be jumping the gun a little. However, since we only know what is reported in the media, any speculation as to the process he followed (that is, consulting experts, visiting and trying to run in Beijing etc.) would be pretty wild. So instead of speculating wildly, I thought it better to dig up some information on the Beijing Marathon and see if it might be a guide as to what we could expect.

Performances in the Beijing Marathon - are they a guide to what we can expect?

This morning, I received an email from Amby Burfoot, providing a link to a really great site for statistics and marathon information.

The site has records on the Beijing Marathon, which is run every year in October. Some of these statistics are shown in the table below:


So, of interest is that despite not attracting a world class field of sub-2:07 men and 2:22 women, the times in Beijing (in October, at least) are quite decent - a 2:11:00 seems pedestrian compared to what we've seen in recent times in London, Berlin and Chicago, but it's by no means a disaster, particularly considering the relative weakness of the field. The worst performances in the last 12 years, incidentally, are more likely due to weak fields than any weather conditions, because in 2000, when the men were particularly slow, the women's winning time was 2:26, which is reasonable, and close to the overall average. Similarly, in 2006, when the women were slow, the men's race was won in 2:10:36, suggesting that conditions were not too hostile for fast times.

Speaking of conditions, what do we expect of Beijing?

Admittedly, the weather in October changes between August, when the Olympic Marathon takes place, and mid-October, when the Beijing Marathon is run. The weather stats are shown below:

The change in minimum temperature is particularly marked, I was surprised at how large it was. That 13 degree difference would of course have a profound effect on performances. Similarly, the change in relative humidity is significant. So the environmental conditions, it would seem, are a very real factor. But then we've known that all along, and it's going to be no hotter in Beijing than it was in Osaka last year for the World Championships, where times were slower, but it certainly was not impossible to run. And then of course, this is an issue mainly about pollution, not heat. The above racing performances seem to suggest that the pollution in Beijing is not so bad that it slows athletes down profoundly. Then again, one might argue that these athletes don't have asthma, as Gebrselassie apparently does...

The comparison between the Beijing Marathon and the Olympic Marathon therefore probably leaves us with more questions than answers! The two big unknowns, of course, are:

1. What is the pollution level in August compared to October?
2. How much does pollution, heat and humidity affect the very best elite athletes?

If anyone out there has access to pollution statistics in Beijing, please let us know! It would be interesting, as one commenter noted in the previous post, to compare London to Beijing. Again, this would serve only to provide some level of numerical comparison, just as the comparision between October and August does, because to actually predict performance implications based on this is not quite as simple as one might have hoped!

I'm sure there's a lot left in this story, and certainly in the pollution in Beijing story. We'll follow its developments!

Ross

Gebrselassie out of the Olympics

Haile Gebrselassie OUT of the Beijing Olympics - the air pollution is a "threat" to his health

Dramatic news being reported today by news sources is that Haile Gebrselassie, Ethiopia’s marathon world record holder and multiple world and Olympic champion has withdrawn from the Olympic Marathon in Beijing, citing concerns over the air pollution as the reason!

Gebrselassie had previously mentioned the possibility that he might not run in Beijing, but today’s news represents a definitive ("99% sure", apparently) decision. Gebrselassie is quoted as saying the following:

"The pollution in China is a threat to my health and it would be difficult for me to run 42km in my current condition,"

“My current condition”, incidentally, refers to Gebrselassie’s asthma, which he says forced him out of the London Marathon in 2007.

How bad is Beijing? And is this a justified decision?

It is a radical decision to take, particularly with all of 150 days to go before the Olympic Games. Yes, there are concerns over the pollution, and yes, it's likely that conditions will be difficult in Beijing, heat and humidity adding to the problems. We won't go into huge detail on air pollution and exercise performance now, since we've looked at the pollution situation in Beijing in two previous posts.

First, we discussed the likely problems the athletes will encounter in Beijing, and how some nations are planning to send athletes to locations OUTSIDE Beijing to avoid the pollution. That was amidst claims and promises that Beijing was doing all it could to improve the pollution situation.

However, a few months later, it was being reported that the air pollution situation in Beijing was actually getting worse, with many of the promises about cleaning the air (including the closure of factories in Beijing) being forgotten or ignored in the face of economic pressure to keep factories open. It has been a problem that has plagued the build-up to Beijing since last year, and this is the most dramatic story arising out of the pollution controversy so far.

A premature decision?

But rather than make this decision now, why not wait out the next three or four months and see how things develop? Consult with an expert or two (because this is an issue where you'd get a sixth and seventh opinion IF you really wanted it) on asthma. Find experts on pollution, as Paula Radcliffe did, and see whether there is a contingency plan that might allow you to run and challenge for what is really the only major title or accolade you're still missing?

The British Olympic team even announced that they would provide masks to their help their athletes breathe more easily if required. Perhaps Gebrselassie has done all this, and the advice he received is that there is no way he'll be able to run in Beijing. It's still almost unbelievable that he wouldn't wait out a month or two before announcing a decision that, in the words of his manager Jos Hermens, is "99% sure".

For the reality is that Gebrselassie has achieved pretty much all he can in international running, apart from winning the Olympic Gold in the marathon. It's a goal he himself has expressed on many occasions and it really does seem peculiar to me that he could so easily let go of the goal.

Instead, his manager Hermens is quoted as saying:

"He doesn't want to put his career in danger and he still wants to run at the 2012 Olympics in London. His dream is to run in two hours and three minutes and to be the first to do that. It's more important for him than to win another gold medal."

The pollution - an unknown quantity

Quite what the long term implication for his health is is difficult to know - certainly, his career would hardly seem in danger if he raced in Beijing. His marathon race, yes, but to suggest that his long term health would be affected is a little extreme. The worst that would happen would be that he could not breathe, and so he'd stop and pull out of the race within the first 10km, and live to fight another day - there's no reason to believe that his 2012 race is at stake thanks to the Beijing air of 2008.

Then again, I'm not sure that elite athletes have ever been exposed to the kind of pollution they'll encounter in Beijing, so the Olympics will be interesting simply from that point of view. Perhaps Gebrselassie tried to jog on a recent trip to Beijing, and found that he simply could not breathe - his mind may have been made up by his lungs!

However, it would seem to be a question of priorities, which is a deviation from the usual line given by athletes (including Gebrselassie) that the medals are more important than the records. Of course, it's Gebrselassie's choice, and good luck to him going for that 2:03 marathon (that is another issue altogether - we've discussed the chances of a 2:03 before). But it certainly is a shame, and hopefully, that 1% chance will still come into play and we'll see Gebrselassie on the roads, rather than the track, in Beijing.

If not, then it's the 10,000m event, as Gebrselassie has announced his intention is to qualify for Ethiopia's team for the 10,000m race in Beijing. This might be part of the reason for such an early announcement - perhaps he felt he needed to make the decision this early to allow him to adjust the training leading into the European summer. However, even that doesn't quite ring true, and I can't help but wonder whether the decision is really as simple as saying that he has other goals, and he is concerned over his health...is there any chance that in two months' time, Gebrselassie will announce that he's changed his mind and WILL in fact run the marathon in Beijing? It would not be the first time that he'd announced his "absence" from a major championships, only to be "persuaded" to go after all...

Suspicions and questions - a valid reason?

Such is the climate around international sport these days, that there is already lively debate and cynicism about the given reason. Does Gebrselassie really have asthma? Or is this an excuse not to be tested by drug control authorities? The problem with that "conspiracy theory" is that Gebrselassie has announced that he'll try to run the 10,000m race in Beijing instead, where he'd be tested anyway. So scratch that theory off the list.

There's actually a great deal of controversy around the drug testing issue and asthmatics, incidentally - for example, if you take an average sample of people and compare it to a sample of Olympic athletes, you find that often, the Olympic group will have a much higher incidence of "asthmatics" - if , that is, you choose to believe all the medical clearances that are issued giving them exemption to use inhalers (which are otherwise banned). But again, the fact that Gebrselassie is not pulling out of the Olympics, but just the Marathon, would suggest that the drug theory is slightly misplaced, on this occasion anyway.

The Olympic Marathon without Gebrselassie

As for where this leaves the marathon, well, it's dramatically weakened by his absence. His anticipated race against the Kenyans, whoever they chose, was due to be a real highlight of the Beijing Games. The marathon will be somewhat lacking its lustre if indeed he doesn't change his mind. So a real shame for the Olympic Games, and let's hope that it's a premature decision and that he announces that he will, after all, take his place in the race come August.

Ross

Related articles

Air Pollution in Beijing: Symptoms and issues facing athletes in Beijing

Olympic events in danger: Athletes will need masks in Beijing

Bekele vs Tadese X-Country

Sports news part 4

But speaking of exercise in the cold, good news for Cross-Country lovers is that Kenenisa Bekele, five-times world champion (but deposed by Zersenay Tadese last year in the heat in Mombasa) will run in this year's World X-Country Champs in Edinburgh, Scotland, on 30 March this year.

The relevance of the reference to the cold is of course that Bekele came unstuck in incredibly hot and humid conditions in Kenya last year. In fact, in a news article about his decision to run in the World Champs in Edinburgh, he said:

"Winning for a sixth time means very much to me and I feel the conditions in Edinburgh will suit me much more than they did last year."

So a rematch of the race in Mombasa is on the cards, where Tadese became Eritrea's first ever world champion. I'm a fan of Tadese's, so I look forward to this clash.

But the even better news for Cross-country lovers is that we won't even have to wait until the end of March to see these two clash - they are actually racing one another this weekend, in the BUPA Great Edinburgh Cross Country run. Conditions will be even colder now than in March later this year, and so Bekele will certainly have nothing to fear - from the weather, anyway!

What is interesting, however, is that in this Olympic year, with all the talk about the heat and humidity in Beijing, Bekele is clearly not enamoured of running in the heat. He didn't enjoy Osaka last year, and obviously didn't enjoy Mombasa. Beijing threatens to be worse than Osaka, and so his preparations, and possibly his approach to the race are going to have to be more positive than what seems to the case. Obviously, he'll know this and should prepare accordingly, but I have seen quotes from Tadese where he says he is happy in the heat - the above quote from Bekele suggests he is not. He may yet find enjoyment in Beijing, but it will be a great race. As will the two previews we'll get over the country earlier this year...we'll bring you that result on the weekend!

Road running: El Guerrouj 10km race

Sports news part 3

Imagine you're lining up in a local 10km race and a couple of athletes to your right stands one of the finest middle distance runners in history! And imagine your surprise, when, after about 7 km, you see that same vest coming back towards you as you catch up to him, pass him and then beat him to the line in a 10km race! OK, you probably, in your moment of reality check, should realise that he's not racing you and is out for a fun run, but, hey, at least you'd be able to tell someone that you beat the great Hicham el Guerrouj in a 10km race!

That's what happened this past weekend in Nice, France, where the great Moroccan ran perhaps his first race since retiring from the sport after his double gold in Athens in 2004. According to reports, el Guerrouj took to the start line with about 4500 runners, stayed with the leaders for a short while, but then dropped back, giving plenty of runners a chance to pass a world record holder, Olympic champion and a man who has run 12:50 for 5km!

el Guerrouj, for his part, seems to be enjoying the fun run approach, saying "People were overtaking me and I could see they were pleased, surprised. I could hear some of them say ‘well, I can say I have beaten Hicham at least once!".

On the note of el Guerrouj, it's interesting to note and observe the trends in the 1500m event since his retirement after the last Olympic Games. In my lifetime, the 1500m event has always been dominated by stars, and usually, they hunt in pairs. We had Coe and Ovett, and later Cram joined the fray. Then Aouita, followed by Noureddine Morceli, and then el Guerrouj. But at the moment, no huge name stands out. Last year was the first year in many, many seasons where 3:30 was not broken and the event certainly could be won by anyone - the euphemism for this is that the 1500m event has "great depth", which, translated, OFTEN means no stand out performer. Ok, that's a little harsh, because current world champ Bernard Lagat is a double world champ and big name, but not the sort of presence of an el Guerrouj, Morceli or Coe/Ovett/Cram.

So we have a vacant throne - any takers come Beijing, perhaps?

Pistorius decision due

Sports news part 5

In December last year, the IAAF issued a press statement saying that the decision around Pistorius' eligibility to run in Beijing would be made on 10 January. I have since read that the decision is to be delayed until the 12th, to allow Pistorius time to respond to the IAAF's decision.

It's one of the more poorly kept secrets around, since apparently, the lead researcher on the case, Prof Bruggemann, has said that the carbon fibre "Cheetahs" offer a considerable advantage to Pistorius. So it seems the IAAF is preparing for a challenge to the ruling, which is a highly costly affair (the testing they paid for cost between 70,000 and 100,000 dollars), and also, the expertise they had in Prof Bruggemann must rank as the best in the world. Finally, it's been theoretically argued that the limbs would provide the "considerable advantage" that has now been proven, so it's difficult to see what avenues he can pursue.

Now, this is an issue we've covered many times here at The Science of Sport, and we'll certainly wrap it up with analysis when that report is eventually released and we have a final decision.

Beijing 2008 and doping

Can Beijing 2008 possibly emerge untainted by doping? We doubt it...

Two days ago, we did a post on some interesting news concerning the Beijing Olympic Marathon, which included a story of how the third and final spot on the Chinese Olympic team for the women's marathon was claimed.

This third and final member of the team, who earns her spot on the team by virtue of winning the Xiamen Marathon this past weekend is Zhang Yingying. And in that race, the 18-year old Zhang, running her third marathon, broke the women's world junior record with an extra-ordinary time of 2:22:38. Her own Personal Best had stood at 2:27:20, which was set three months ago in what was her second marathon.

So we have a five-minute improvement on a PB, from an 18-year old who has little to no history of running great performances in an event that is typically dominated by athletes in their early 30's who have a pedigree of running on the track...

Would it be excessively cynical for me to immediately have visions of turtle blood and other doping practices? Yes, out of a nation of a billion people, it is possible that you'll get this type of talent emerging, but we're leaning towards the other option on this one.

Given the history of the Chinese for producing world class athletes powered by turtle blood, dried caterpillars, and other concoctions, scepticism might be well placed. It most definitely will not be the last time we speak of Chinese athletes and doping allegations in 2008.

Some interesting information from a reader

And then added to that, we received a very helpful email from a reader who is based in China (and runs his own blog - Run back by 7).

In his email, he referred us to the following excerpt from a newspaper:

Curiously, the Xiamen race winner Zhang and Bai Xue, the winner of October's Beijing marathon - who was the runner-up in Xiamen - were not included on the short list (of Potential Olympic Team members).

"Though they have shown blistering form recently, they don't have the trust of sports officials in Beijing because of their link with Wang Dexian," said a source.

Bai and Zhang train under Wang Deming, the younger brother of the disgraced Wang Dexian. That relationship has apparently caused concern among the officials wary of any possible doping fallout before and during the Olympics.

So it seems that despite winning the Xiamen Marathon and qualifying for the Olympic marathon team, Zhang's place is questioned over the possible doping controversies...

What is more interesting to me is the emergence of another coach - Wang Dexian. The famous Chinese coach of the early 1990's was Ma Junren - he of the turtle blood excuse when three of his athletes tested positive for EPO! But this is a new name and I think the story highlights the massive problems the Chinese officials have.

To begin with, we assume that the officials are not complicit in doping, although it would not be the first time that a state-run programme produced results through systematic doping. But even assuming this, there are clearly massive problems. The Chinese system is so shrouded in mystery (to the West, anyway) that to know just what is going on is near impossible.

A few months ago, we did a post or two on the massive steroid bust in the USA - Operation Raw Deal. In that sequence of stories, it emerged that much of the world's banned substance trade seems to originate in China, where raw materials for the manufacture of undetectable, banned substances are freely available at ridiculously low prices.

Undetectable drugs, designer products that have likely never even been seen before by IOC laboratories, are almost certain to be available by the Olympic Games. Experts have warned that by Beijing 2008, "100 undetectable drugs will be available". Now, this may well be hyperbole, but even five undetectable drugs will create havoc with the Olympic Games and it's a very ominous shadow on the horizon.

The Chinese women of the 1990's - is there more to come in 2008?

The Chinese women of the 1990's came, saw, conquered, and then disappeared, leaving only unbreakable records as evidence of their presence on the world stage. Most people are aware that the records are suspect, but when you look at the facts and numbers, it jumps out just how unbelievable the year of 1993 was for women's running. Just take a look at the world records for the women's middle and long distance events:

1500m

• Qu Yunxia is 2 seconds faster than any runner not from China.
  
• The four fastest times in history are all Chinese and all were set in 1993.
  
• No one has run within 5 seconds of these times since then, and you know that the Eastern Europeans who used to hold the records here were tainted by drugs to begin with!

3000m

• The Top 7 times in history belong to Chinese women.
• All seven times were set in 1993.The next fastest person is a full 15 seconds behind the world record holder.

10 000m

• Wang Junxia (also the holder of the 3000m WR) stands a full 30 seconds clear of the second fastest person in history
• The record was also set in 1993, the year of the Turtle blood and caterpillar treatment

Records that will never be broken then - unless, perhaps, the Chinese women can break them in 2008?

Ross

Beijing 2008

Event Coverage and analysis:

Track and Field

• 9.69s. But could Usain Bolt have run 9.55s? Not a chance...
  
• Men's Marathon: Sammy Wanjiru takes Kenya's gold. A star is born
  
• Discovering Usain Bolt: Who is this guy?
  
• Men's 200m. Usain Bolt 19.30s! Double gold, double world record
  
• Night of drama: Favourites blow it in Beijing Bird's nest
  
• Women's Marathon: Dita surprises everyone. Race analysis and split times
  
• Men's 10,000m Final: Bekele defends. Race report and splits
  
• Men's 100m Race Analysis: Split times and speeds
  
• Men's 100m. Usain Bolt 9.69 World Record. Race Report
  
• Women's 10,000m Final: Dibaba wins first gold. Analysis
  

General

• The cost of Olympic Gold: How much is a medal worth?
• The Olympic Oscars: Best and worst of Beijing
• The Olympic Oscars Part 2: Awards from Beijing
• Olympic Games medal analysis

Swimming

• Men's 100m Butterfly: Phelps by 1/100th of a second for number 7!
  
• Can Michael Phelps win 8 golds? Recap of Phelps' first 400-IM gold
• Men's 4 x 100 m Freestyle rely: US steals gold from Alain Bernard and France
• Men's 200m Freestyle: Phelps' third goal, destroys the world record
• Phelps win four and five, and claims Olympic history

Cycling

• Men's cycling Road Race: Preview
• Men's cycling road race: Results and race report

Beijing Build-up

In the buildup to the Beijing Games, we covered the following high profile stories:

• The swimsuit revolution: High-tech doping or necessary evolution?
  
• The Speedo LZR Racer: Introduction and debate: Does Speedo's "supersuit" make world records irrelevant? The line between "tech-doping" and innovation.
• Speedo's LZR: The role of swimming technique in progress - the suit or the style?
• The swimsuit wars begin: Arena enters the fray, and what goes into suit design

• Doping and the Olympics

• The spectre of doping in Beijing - can we possibly expect a clean Olympic Games?
• Chinese athletes and doping - the "class of 1993" and will 2008 produce the same result?
  

• Beijing Pollution

• Will Beijing's AIR be ready for the Olympic Games?
• The pollution problem in Beijing is only getting WORSE! Will events be postponed?
• Haile Gebrselassie WITHDRAWS from the Olympic Marathon, citing pollution as the reason. Justified decision, or lame excuse?
• Gebrselassie may yet run the Marathon - hints at a change of heart
  

• Preview of Beijing events - 9 months out

• Marathon events in Beijing - favouring the small runners from hot climates
• Preview of selected track events in Beijing
  

Ross